Will Donald Trump say “April Fool”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “April Fool” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 4, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
April Fool
- Probability
- 38% · n=4
- Settled
- 0/4 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | April Fool |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 1, 2026 | April Fool / April Fool's | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | April Fools |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | April Fools | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 4, 2025 | April Fool's | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “April Fool”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “April Fool” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 4, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “April Fool” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘April Fool’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/april-fool (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=april%20fool · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP