Will Donald Trump say “Soleimani”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Soleimani” at 7 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 25, 2026 (30%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 21% (n=23, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Soleimani
- Probability
- 21% · n=23
- Settled
- 7/23 (30%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 25 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Soleimani |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (5 of 10 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 11 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Jun 23, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Soleimani |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 1, 2026 | Soleimani | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Soleimani | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Soleimani | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Soleimani | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Soleimani | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Soleimani | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Soleimani | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Soleimani”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Soleimani” at 7 of 23 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 25, 2026 (30%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Soleimani” next time?
- 21%, from settlement history (n=23). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Soleimani’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/soleimani (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=soleimani · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP