Will Donald Trump say “Hezbollah / Hamas”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hezbollah / Hamas” at 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 29, 2025 (18%), most recently on Jul 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no no no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hezbollah / Hamas
- Probability
- 35% · n=11
- Settled
- 2/11 (18%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…many, many, many more things. And we got all of the 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before…
And we got all 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before that. We got them all returned. Got…
…were raging. Egypt and Ethiopia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. We got all the 28 Hamas hostages returned to their families, both living and dead, and hundreds before…
…this hall, the war in Gaza was still raging brutally. The hostages were still deep in Hamas tunnels and there was no end in sight.
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 20, 2026 | Hezbollah / Hamas |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Hezbollah / Hamas | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 5, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Hezbollah / Hamas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Hezbollah / Hamas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Hamas / Hezbollah | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hezbollah / Hamas”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hezbollah / Hamas” at 2 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 29, 2025 (18%), most recently on Jul 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hezbollah / Hamas” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hezbollah / Hamas’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hama-or-hezbollah (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hama%20%2F%20hezbollah · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP