Will Donald Trump say “Excursion”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Excursion” at 1 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2026 (9%), most recently on Mar 17, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=11, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 1/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 9 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Excursion
- Probability
- 32% · n=11
- Settled
- 1/11 (9%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 12 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2026 | Excursion |  Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Excursion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Excursion |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Excursion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Excursion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Excursion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Excursion | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Excursion | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Excursion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Excursion | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Excursion | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Excursion | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Excursion”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Excursion” at 1 of 11 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 17, 2026 (9%), most recently on Mar 17, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Excursion” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=11). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Excursion’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/excursion (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=excursion · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP