Will Donald Trump say “Iraq”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iraq” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 1, 2026 (25%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 35% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
35%from settlement history only · n=4counts: named speaker only
- Last 10
- 1/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Updated
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Iraq
- Probability
- 35% · n=4
- Settled
- 1/4 (25%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Iraq”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Iraq” at 1 of 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Apr 1, 2026 (25%), most recently on Apr 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Iraq” next time?
- 35%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Iraq’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/iraq (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=iraq · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP