Will Donald Trump say “Regime Change”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Regime Change” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 22, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 15, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 3/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no yes yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Regime Change
- Probability
- 38% · n=7
- Settled
- 3/7 (43%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 0 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | Regime Change |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| May 17, 2026 | Regime change | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Regime Change | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Regime Change | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Regime change | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Regime Change | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Regime Change | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Regime Change”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Regime Change” at 3 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jun 22, 2025 (43%), most recently on May 15, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Regime Change” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Regime Change’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/regime-change (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=regime%20change · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP