Donald Trump: Monthly window, Sep 30, 2026

By Sep 30Monthly windowHistory onlyDonald Trump

Updated

Coverage

131 known appearances
94 of 131 known appearances transcribed Window: Jul 1, 2026 to Oct 1, 2026. Counts: spoken + his own written posts. 2,043 own posts by @realDonaldTrump (243 reposts left out). Counts are lower bounds until every appearance is transcribed.

Markets

29 words · 18 settled yes · our count agreed on 15 of 15

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Counts marked ≥ are lower bounds: not every appearance in this window is transcribed yet, so a word may have been said more often.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Barack Hussein Obama Yes2022✓83%n=108 from settlement history–
Sleazebag Yes88✓64%n=5 from settlement history–
Crooked Joe Yes88✓61%n=3 from settlement history–
Too Late Yes710✓48%n=29 from settlement history–
Newscum Yes55✓58%n=66 from settlement history–
Pocahontas Yes57✓52%n=26 from settlement history–
Witch Hunt Yes35✓61%n=6 from settlement history–
Grossly Incompetent Yes33✓61%n=2 from settlement history–
Low IQ Yes34✓54%n=13 from settlement history–
RINO Yes33✓49%n=7 from settlement history–
Crooked Hillary Yes22✓63%n=8 from settlement history–
Lightweight Yes22✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Con Job Yes12✓65%n=6 from settlement history–
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck Yes11✓62%n=5 from settlement history–
Marjorie Traitor Greene Yes11✓57%n=6 from settlement history–
Whack Job / Wack Job Yes–0–66%n=3 from settlement history–
Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus Yes–0––n=1 too little history for a probability–
Piggy Yes–0–51%n=5 from settlement history–
Trainwreck No–0––new new word, no probability yet–
Numbskull No–0–52%n=3 from settlement history–
Fat Slob No–0–50%n=5 from settlement history–
Egghead No–0–49%n=2 from settlement history–
Tampon Tim No–0–46%n=3 from settlement history–
Biden Crime Family No–0–44%n=4 from settlement history–
Crazy Bernie No–0–44%n=4 from settlement history–
Little Communist No–0–44%n=4 from settlement history–
Comrade Kamala No–0–44%n=15 from settlement history–
Rocket Man No–0–42%n=5 from settlement history–
Low Energy No–0–39%n=6 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP