Will Donald Trump say “Crooked Joe”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crooked Joe” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 19, 2025 (83%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 66% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Crooked Joe
- Probability
- 66% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Myers earlier this year, an illegal alien released into our county by crooked Joe Biden. You know who I'm talking about. strangled and killed a…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2026 | Crooked Joe |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Crooked Joe | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Crooked Joe |  Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Crooked Joe | Kalshi | Yes | 10 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Crooked Joe | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Crooked Joe | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Crooked Joe”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Crooked Joe” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 19, 2025 (83%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Crooked Joe” next time?
- 66%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Crooked Joe’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/crooked-joe (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=crooked%20joe · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP