Donald Trump: Remarks, Jul 1, 2026
Donald Trump: Burning Hills Amphitheater on July 1
In remarks on Jul 1, 2026, Donald Trump said 21 of the 45 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
45 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Yes | 71%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 70%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 62%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| New York | Yes | 62%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat / Dumocrat | Yes | 60%n=175 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 53%n=169 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 52%n=286 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 52%n=195 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=126 from settlement history | – |
| Iran | Yes | 48%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 48%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 48%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 46%n=270 from settlement history | – |
| Roosevelt | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 43%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand 10+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Lincoln | Yes | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Washington | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age | Yes | 38%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 34%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 32%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 59%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 57%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 52%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Booming | No | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 47%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 45%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Firework | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jefferson | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Farm / Farmer | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 45%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 44%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Restaurant | No | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 43%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Mount Trump | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Common Sense | No | 41%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 41%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 38%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 38%n=181 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 37%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | No | 36%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Windmill | No | 32%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 31%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 26%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 3%n=418 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-01:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-01:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP