Donald Trump: Announcement, Aug 4, 2026
In remarks on Aug 4, 2026, Donald Trump said 6 of the 29 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
29 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=321 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age | Yes | 45%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 43%n=217 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 41%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 38%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 31%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 64%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 61%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 57%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 57%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 46%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 45%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 43%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 41%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 41%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 41%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | 39%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 38%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 38%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 35%n=309 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 34%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 32%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 31%n=200 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 28%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 27%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 25%n=214 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 24%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 18%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=470 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-04:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-04:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP