Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 29, 2026
Donald Trump: Remarks at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium
In remarks on Sep 29, 2026, Donald Trump said 9 of the 36 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
36 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 57%n=197 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 53%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 52%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 49%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 47%n=349 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 44%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| 250 | Yes | 40%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 28%n=261 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | No | 55%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 55%n=366 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 53%n=253 from settlement history | – |
| Coal | No | 51%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRx | No | 49%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | No | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ times | No | 45%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 45%n=117 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 45%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Robot | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 42%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Czar | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grid | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| No Tax on Tips | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Globalism / Globalist | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | 39%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 38%n=192 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 36%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Manhattan | No | 35%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 2+ times | No | 34%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 32%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | 31%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Most Favored Nation | No | 30%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 27%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 6%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=513 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 10, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-29:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-29:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP