Donald Trump: Announcement, Sep 30, 2026
In remarks on Sep 30, 2026, Donald Trump said 16 of the 26 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 16 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 58%n=198 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 54%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=367 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 53%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 52%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 50%n=192 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 47%n=350 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 47%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Venezuelan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Steel | Yes | 45%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Japan / Japanese | Yes | 44%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 43%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 35%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| Super Intelligence | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 30%n=262 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 28%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| New York | No | 56%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | No | 53%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Pharmaceutical / Pharma | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff 3+ times | No | 41%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 38%n=193 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 31%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 28%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 25%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 15%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=514 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 11, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-30:remarks-announcement · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-30:remarks-announcement · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP