Donald Trump: Remarks, Aug 31, 2026
Donald Trump: Healthcare affordability announcement
In remarks on Aug 31, 2026, Donald Trump said 18 of the 42 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
42 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | Yes | 74%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 64%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=341 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 55%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 54%n=216 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 52%n=233 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRx | Yes | 51%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | Yes | 50%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 48%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 46%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 46%n=330 from settlement history | – |
| R&D / Research and Development | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| FDA | Yes | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rare / Chronic | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ozempic / GLP-1 | Yes | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| London | Yes | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | Yes | 35%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 31%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Protester | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Communism / Communist | No | 45%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 42%n=167 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Failing Nation / Failing Country | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Madrigal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental / Mentally | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Middleman / Middle Man | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Neurocrine | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mental Health | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Peptide | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Minesweeper / Mine Dropper | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 39%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Psychiatric / Psychedelic | No | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Insurance | No | 36%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Kharg / Island | No | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 35%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Vaccine / Vaccinated / Vaccination | No | 34%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 33%n=235 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | No | 33%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| MAHA / Make America Healthy Again | No | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | No | 23%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 8%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=493 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-31:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-31:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP