Donald Trump: Sunday Night in America, Aug 30, 2026
In the interview on Aug 30, 2026, Donald Trump said 15 of the 26 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 71%n=216 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 70%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 66%n=341 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 59%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | Yes | 58%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 55%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 52%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 52%n=167 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=174 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 50%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 49%n=224 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 48%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| NASA / Space | Yes | 43%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 42%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 38%n=330 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 55%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 53%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 50%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 38%n=163 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 37%n=235 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 36%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 31%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 26%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 23%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=493 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 12%n=99 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the broadcaster's video captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-30:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-30:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP