# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · window_month by 2026-09-30 (settled) · 29 words · K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01 · as_of 2026-10-24T23:59:52Z
# scope K named · n/y settled before 2026-09-30 · tn/th last 8 transcripts of any kind 2026-09-21..2026-09-23 · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · same on every row: thr 1, v K · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPSAYNICKNAME-26OCT01 ({word} = w of K rows): If {word}, or a plural or possessive form of {word}, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
# coverage 94 of 131 known appearances transcribed (as of 2026-10-23T00:24:30Z) · agree blank = not graded; lower_bound 1 = cnt is a floor (a window not fully read), never a NO
# text pending: 6 appearances since 2026-09-24 without a transcript yet (tn/th leave them out); newest donald-trump:2026-09-30:remarks-announcement: White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project) (pending; eta 2026-11-12T04:59:00Z)
w	key	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	cnt	cnt_all	res	agree	lower_bound
Barack Hussein Obama	barack hussein obama	170	99	0.58	nnnYYYnnYn	8	0	0.83	hist	20	22	yes	1	
Whack Job / Wack Job	wack job|whack job	3	3	1	YYY	8	0	0.66	hist	0	0	yes		1
Con Job	con job	6	4	0.67	nYYYnY	8	0	0.65	hist	1	2	yes	1	
Sleazebag	sleazebag	5	4	0.8	YYYnY	8	0	0.64	hist	8	8	yes	1	
Crooked Hillary	crooked hillary	8	6	0.75	YYnYYYnY	8	0	0.63	hist	2	2	yes	1	
Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck	cryin chuck|crying chuck	5	3	0.6	YnnYY	8	0	0.62	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Grossly Incompetent	grossly incompetent	2	2	1	YY	8	0	0.61	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Crooked Joe	crooked joe	4	3	0.75	nYYY	8	0	0.61	hist	8	8	yes	1	
Witch Hunt	witch hunt	6	4	0.67	nYYYnY	8	0	0.61	hist	3	5	yes	1	
Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus	slopadopolous|slopadopolus	1	1	1	Y	8	0	0.6	hist	0	0	yes		1
Newscum	newscum	77	42	0.55	YYnYnnnnnn	8	0	0.58	hist	5	5	yes	1	
Marjorie Traitor Greene	marjorie traitor greene	7	3	0.43	nYYYnnn	8	0	0.57	hist	1	1	yes	1	
Low IQ	low iq	13	5	0.38	nnYnYYnnYn	8	0	0.54	hist	3	4	yes	1	
Pocahontas	pocahonta	26	14	0.54	nnnnYnnnnY	8	0	0.52	hist	5	7	yes	1	
Numbskull	numbskull	0	0			8	0	0.52	hist	0	0	no		1
Piggy	piggy	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	8	0	0.51	hist	0	0	yes		1
Fat Slob	fat slob	5	1	0.2	nnnnY	8	0	0.5	hist	0	0	no		1
RINO	rino	8	2	0.25	nnnnYYnn	8	0	0.49	hist	3	3	yes	1	
Egghead	egghead	2	0	0	nn	8	0	0.49	hist	0	0	no		1
Too Late	too late	28	9	0.32	nnYYnYnYnn	8	0	0.48	hist	7	10	yes	1	
Tampon Tim	tampon tim	4	0	0	nnnn	8	0	0.46	hist	0	0	no		1
Comrade Kamala	comrade kamala	16	3	0.19	nnnnnnnnnn	8	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no		1
Biden Crime Family	biden crime family	5	0	0	nnnnn	8	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no		1
Crazy Bernie	crazy bernie	5	0	0	nnnnn	8	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no		1
Little Communist	little communist	5	0	0	nnnnn	8	0	0.44	hist	0	0	no		1
Rocket Man	rocket man	6	0	0	nnnnnn	8	0	0.42	hist	0	0	no		1
Low Energy	low energy	7	0	0	nnnnnnn	8	0	0.39	hist	0	0	no		1
Lightweight	lightweight	0	0			8	0	0.56	prior	2	2	yes	1	
Trainwreck	trainwreck	0	0			8	0	0.56	prior	0	0	no		1