Donald Trump: Fox News at Night, Aug 4, 2026
In the interview on Aug 4, 2026, Donald Trump said 15 of the 34 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
34 words · 15 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 74%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 69%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=201 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=321 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 57%n=217 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=156 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 50%n=149 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 49%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 44%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 43%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Strait | Yes | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 40%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 38%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacturing | Yes | 38%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 33%n=214 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 65%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 61%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | No | 56%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 51%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 48%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 46%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 46%n=309 from settlement history | – |
| RINO | No | 45%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Terminate / Terminated | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blanche | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Jeanine / Pirro | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Last Chance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Max / Miller | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gavin / Newsom | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud | No | 41%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 36%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 36%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 29%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 17%n=65 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-04:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-04:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP