Donald Trump: Rose Garden event, Aug 24, 2026
In remarks on Aug 24, 2026, Donald Trump said 14 of the 36 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
36 words · 14 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big Beautiful Bill | Yes | 62%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 55%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 52%n=211 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | Yes | 47%n=73 from settlement history | – |
| Women's Sports | Yes | 46%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 45%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Tax Credit / Tax Cut | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Child / Children 5+ times | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Race / Indy | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 40%n=218 from settlement history | – |
| College | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Teacher / Teachers | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Scholarship | Yes | 36%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 33%n=229 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 67%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 57%n=336 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 53%n=229 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 53%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 51%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 51%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 51%n=134 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 50%n=170 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 47%n=160 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 46%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 10+ times | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| High School | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Private School | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fraud | No | 40%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 32%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 27%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Tuition | No | 25%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 20%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 12%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 8%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=486 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-24:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-24:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP