Donald Trump: Evening remarks with Xi Jinping, Sep 24, 2026
In remarks on Sep 24, 2026, Donald Trump said 2 of the 38 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
38 words · 2 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melania | Yes | 44%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 34%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | No | 62%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 60%n=194 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 56%n=362 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 56%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Farm / Farmer / Farming | No | 55%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 54%n=250 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 54%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | No | 52%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Pharma / Pharmaceutical | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 51%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 50%n=187 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 50%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 46%n=347 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 46%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing | No | 46%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Billion / Trillion | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Soybean | No | 44%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 5+ times | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Economy / Economic | No | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China 5+ times | No | 41%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 41%n=188 from settlement history | – |
| Garden / Rose | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Great Hall | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tea / Silk | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| North Korea | No | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 37%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Nixon | No | 36%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Rare Earth | No | 36%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 35%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| United Nations / NATO | No | 34%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 30%n=256 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 27%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 21%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 20%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency | No | 15%n=34 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 5, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-24:remarks-evening-xi-jinping · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-24:remarks-evening-xi-jinping · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP