Donald Trump: Remarks, Aug 20, 2026
Donald Trump: Remarks in the White House Rose Garden
In remarks on Aug 20, 2026, Donald Trump said 5 of the 38 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
38 words · 5 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Investment / Investing | Yes | 56%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Future | Yes | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Youth | Yes | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Community | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 33%n=227 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 61%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | 58%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 58%n=334 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 57%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 5+ times | No | 55%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | No | 54%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 54%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 53%n=210 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 52%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 51%n=168 from settlement history | – |
| Honey / Darling | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Child / Children | No | 51%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 48%n=323 from settlement history | – |
| Thank 10+ times | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 48%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 46%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Child 5+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| School | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Scholarship | No | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Education / College | No | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Foster 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Grass | No | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 42%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Adopt / Adoption | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | 41%n=161 from settlement history | – |
| Job 6+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Transgender | No | 40%n=215 from settlement history | – |
| Foster Care | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 33%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 27%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 14%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 8%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=484 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-20:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-20:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP