Will Donald Trump say “Pocahontas”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pocahontas” at 16 of 28 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 30, 2024 (57%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 58% (n=28, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no no no yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Pocahontas
- Probability
- 58% · n=28
- Settled
- 16/28 (57%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 28 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2026 | Pocahontas |  Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Pocahontas | Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Pocahontas | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Pocahontas | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Pocahontas |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Pocahontas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Pocahontas | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 2, 2025 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Pocahontas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 20, 2025 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Nov 1, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 31, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Pocahontas | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Pocahontas”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pocahontas” at 16 of 28 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 30, 2024 (57%), most recently on Oct 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pocahontas” next time?
- 58%, from settlement history (n=28). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pocahontas’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/pocahonta (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=pocahonta · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP