Donald Trump: Fox News: Special Report, Jul 14, 2026
In the interview on Jul 14, 2026, Donald Trump said 6 of the 24 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
24 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 75%n=173 from settlement history | – |
| Deal / Settle | Yes | 71%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 66%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 62%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 40%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 34%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 71%n=179 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 69%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 63%n=297 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 59%n=136 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 55%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 55%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 54%n=125 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 52%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 49%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Bibi / Netanyahu | No | 47%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 46%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 43%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Pratt | No | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Rigged Election | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 38%n=193 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 20%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 20%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=437 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-14:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-14:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP