Will Donald Trump say “Too Late”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Too Late” at 11 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (35%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=31, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no yes no yes no no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Too Late
- Probability
- 54% · n=31
- Settled
- 11/31 (35%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 33 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2026 | Too Late |  Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Too Late |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | Yes | 7 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | Yes | 8 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 22, 2026 | Too late | Polymarket | No | – |
| May 22, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 1, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Too late | Polymarket | No | – |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Too Late | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Too Late | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Too Late | Polymarket | No | – |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Too late | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Too Late | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Too Late | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Too Late | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Too Late | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 9, 2025 | Too Late | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 25, 2025 | Too Late | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Too Late | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Too Late | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Too Late”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Too Late” at 11 of 31 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 30, 2025 (35%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Too Late” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=31). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Too Late’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/too-late (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=too%20late · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP