Donald Trump: Fox & Friends, Jul 13, 2026
In the interview on Jul 13, 2026, Donald Trump said 6 of the 25 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
25 words · 6 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 74%n=169 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=294 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 61%n=133 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 59%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 46%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 44%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 75%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 68%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 62%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 61%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 60%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 54%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | No | 52%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom / Pool | No | 51%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 48%n=281 from settlement history | – |
| UFC | No | 48%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 47%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Duffy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 45%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 44%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 43%n=189 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 41%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 25%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 25%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=433 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-13:interview-fox-friends · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-13:interview-fox-friends · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP