Donald Trump: Announcement on healthcare, Sep 18, 2026
In remarks on Sep 18, 2026, Donald Trump said 18 of the 34 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
34 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=356 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | Yes | 55%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 55%n=243 from settlement history | – |
| Medicare / Medicaid | Yes | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 54%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 52%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | Yes | 50%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy / Stupid | Yes | 50%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| President Xi | Yes | 46%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 2+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Kennedy / RFK | Yes | 40%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Subsidy / Subsidize / Subsidized | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mehmet / Oz | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Pharma / Pharmaceutical | Yes | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Obamacare | Yes | 37%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Autism / Autistic | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| No No No | Yes | 31%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Obama | Yes | 29%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 72%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 65%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 53%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Pfizer | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ozempic / GLP-1 | No | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Cancer | No | 45%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 42%n=180 from settlement history | – |
| Interest | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Health Savings Account / HSA | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Insulin | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Eli Lilly | No | 39%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 38%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Transparent / Transparency | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Insurance | No | 32%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 31%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=506 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Oct 30, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-18:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-18:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP