Donald Trump: GB News interview, Sep 3, 2026
In the interview on Sep 3, 2026, Donald Trump said 12 of the 26 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 75%n=185 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 73%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | Yes | 66%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 62%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 55%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 54%n=169 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 54%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 50%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| King | Yes | 46%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Prince Harry / Meghan | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 42%n=332 from settlement history | – |
| Immigration / Immigration | Yes | 40%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 72%n=218 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 67%n=343 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 62%n=234 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 59%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 54%n=175 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | No | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 46%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Andy Burnham | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Starmer | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Greenland | No | 41%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 29%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 24%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 16%n=496 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 12%n=101 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the broadcaster's video captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-03:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-03:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP