Donald Trump: Rally, Jul 29, 2026
At the rally on Jul 29, 2026, Donald Trump said 7 of the 21 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 20 of 21 settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
21 words · 7 settled yes · our count agreed on 20 of 21- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 4 | 4 | ✓ | 53%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 57%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 59%n=31 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 53%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Endorse / Endorsement | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 52%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 39%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 29%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 73%n=314 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=194 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 58%n=211 from settlement history | – |
| Landslide | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=151 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 41%n=303 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 40%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 39%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 37%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 23%n=208 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 18%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 10%n=461 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsOfficial transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full text is at the source.
Where the listed words were said
As the grandson of a refugee from communist Cuba, Michael will fight against the "Dumocrat"—and we call them "Dumocrats" because their policies are so bad—the…
…you know, we're doing very well in that regard. We'll finish off Iran pretty soon. It's going to happen. It—Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.…
And perhaps most importantly, he'll vote for the SAVE America Act to protect our sacred American elections. All voters will, very simply, show voter ID…
Also, no men in women's sports and no transgender surgery—we call it mutilization—for our children. And Michael stands so strong on those subjects—on every subject.…
Michael Alfonso has my complete and total endorsement. He's terrific. He's the son-in-law of our great Rachel Campos-Duffy, who you know as a television star.…
…will fight relentlessly for the people of Wisconsin, and he'll always put America first. You're—you can be sure of that. I've gotten to know Michael,…
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-29:rally-tele-michael-alfonso · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-29:rally-tele-michael-alfonso · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP