Donald Trump: Announcement, Aug 25, 2026
In remarks on Aug 25, 2026, Donald Trump said 9 of the 26 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 63%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 51%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 49%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 49%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 48%n=230 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 27%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 24%n=163 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 16%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 63%n=337 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 57%n=212 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Age | No | 56%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 50%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 49%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 44%n=162 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 43%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 40%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 37%n=87 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 35%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 33%n=44 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 30%n=326 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 28%n=221 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=231 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 23%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=489 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 10%n=97 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-25:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-25:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP