Donald Trump: Hugh Hewitt Radio Show, Jul 14, 2026
On the Jul 14, 2026 episode of Donald Trump, Donald Trump said 3 of the 19 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
19 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 64%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 60%n=177 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 59%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 67%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 65%n=104 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | No | 65%n=96 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 63%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 54%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 48%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 45%n=169 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 42%n=283 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 40%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 39%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 36%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 35%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 34%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 33%n=19 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 29%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=435 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-14:tv_episode · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-14:tv_episode · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP