Donald Trump: Remarks, Sep 30, 2026
Donald Trump: Hispanic Heritage Month Celebration
In remarks on Sep 30, 2026, Donald Trump said 17 of the 26 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 17 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Landslide | Yes | 67%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Social Security | Yes | 59%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 54%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 54%n=367 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 53%n=122 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 52%n=254 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 51%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| American Dream | Yes | 47%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 47%n=350 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela / Venezuelan | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 43%n=118 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | Yes | 43%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Small Business | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rubio | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 35%n=61 from settlement history | – |
| No Tax on Tips | Yes | 35%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | Yes | 28%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Trump Account | No | 50%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Culture | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| ICE | No | 40%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Latina | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 32%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 30%n=262 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 6%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=514 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 11, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-30:remarks-hispanic-heritage-month · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-30:remarks-hispanic-heritage-month · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP