Donald Trump: Real America's Voice interview, Aug 11, 2026
In the interview on Aug 11, 2026, Donald Trump said 18 of the 33 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
33 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 70%n=208 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 68%n=56 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 65%n=331 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 62%n=227 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 59%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 55%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 53%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 50%n=165 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 49%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 49%n=158 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | 48%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 48%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 45%n=210 from settlement history | – |
| Pardon / Pardoned | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 43%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Schumer | Yes | 39%n=24 from settlement history | – |
| Fauci | Yes | 35%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 14%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Venezuela | No | 73%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 49%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 45%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Abdul / El-Sayed | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hottest | No | 41%n=320 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 40%n=153 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 40%n=224 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 36%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 34%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 34%n=33 from settlement history | – |
| Zohran / Mamdani | No | 30%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| Highest Inflation | No | 29%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 25%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 17%n=480 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 14%n=90 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the broadcaster's video captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-11:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-11:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP