Donald Trump: Announcement, Aug 13, 2026
In remarks on Aug 13, 2026, Donald Trump said 8 of the 27 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
27 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 62%n=332 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 61%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 53%n=209 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 47%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 44%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 39%n=99 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 38%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | Yes | 30%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 54%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 52%n=228 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 47%n=154 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 41%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 40%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 37%n=89 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 36%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 35%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| Air Force One | No | 34%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 32%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 31%n=321 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 29%n=225 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 28%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 27%n=211 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 24%n=159 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 22%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 15%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 11%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 11%n=481 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-13:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-13:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP