Donald Trump: Announcement, Sep 28, 2026
In remarks on Sep 28, 2026, Donald Trump said 12 of the 31 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
31 words · 12 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 56%n=196 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 55%n=365 from settlement history | – |
| Invest / Invested / Investment | Yes | 52%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 52%n=252 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 52%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 51%n=230 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 50%n=120 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 48%n=190 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 46%n=348 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 2+ times | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 32%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 30%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Favored Nation | No | 60%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| TrumpRX | No | 53%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 48%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | 40%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 39%n=30 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 39%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Super Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Midterm | No | 36%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | No | 36%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Dario / Anthropic | No | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 34%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 31%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 30%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 29%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 29%n=260 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 25%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 7%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 4%n=511 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 9, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-28:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-28:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP