Donald Trump: Ingraham Angle, Sep 10, 2026
In the interview on Sep 10, 2026, Donald Trump said 11 of the 25 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
25 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 65%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 59%n=220 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 54%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 52%n=98 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 51%n=236 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 49%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 47%n=93 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 46%n=108 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 45%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | 42%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Obama / Obamacare | Yes | 42%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 61%n=345 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 52%n=229 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | 51%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | No | 49%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 48%n=334 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 47%n=176 from settlement history | – |
| Talarico | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 44%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 36%n=47 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 35%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 33%n=238 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 29%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 15%n=104 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the broadcaster's video captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-10:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-10:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP