Donald Trump: Remarks, Jul 29, 2026
Donald Trump: Announcement with the Secretary of Transportation
In remarks on Jul 29, 2026, Donald Trump said 21 of the 52 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
52 words · 21 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| China / Chinese | Yes | 61%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 57%n=314 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 53%n=211 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 52%n=194 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 48%n=303 from settlement history | – |
| Crazy | Yes | 45%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 43%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| Helicopter | Yes | 43%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | Yes | 40%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Airport | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Architect | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Building | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| CEO | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Design / Designed | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Say Something | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ATC / Air Traffic Control / Air Traffic Controller | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Bus | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Train | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 35%n=208 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 33%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | Yes | 28%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 51%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 51%n=151 from settlement history | – |
| Space Force | No | 48%n=25 from settlement history | – |
| NASA | No | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 46%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 45%n=80 from settlement history | – |
| Warsh | No | 42%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 42%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 41%n=143 from settlement history | – |
| Sidewalk | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Who Are You | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| American Airlines | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Hike / Hiked / Hiking | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | No | 40%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Moon | No | 40%n=20 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 39%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Buttigieg | No | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Strait | No | 39%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Cut Rate / Rate Cut | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Rebuild | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| LaGuardia | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | 32%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 28%n=92 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 28%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 25%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | 25%n=59 from settlement history | – |
| Elon / Musk | No | 23%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 20%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 20%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 11%n=82 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=461 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-29:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-29:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP