Remarks #2 transcript, Sep 24, 2026 (Donald Trump)

Remarks at a State Dinner Honoring President Xi Jinping of China

In remarks on Sep 24, 2026, Donald Trump said 4 of the 39 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 36 of 39 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

Updated

Markets

39 words · 4 settled yes · our count agreed on 36 of 39

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Melania Yes34✓44%n=81 from settlement history–
Peace Yes11✓26%n=48 from settlement history–
Farm / Farmer / Farming Yes00✗55%n=33 from settlement history–
Board of Trade Yes00✗–new new word, no probability yet–
China 5+ timesNo418✓41%n=24 from settlement history–
Ballroom No11✗34%n=116 from settlement history–
Invest / Invested / Investment No00✓62%n=21 from settlement history–
Genius No00✓61%n=23 from settlement history–
Nuclear No00✓60%n=194 from settlement history–
Biden No00✓56%n=362 from settlement history–
Trump No09✓56%n=78 from settlement history–
Tariff No00✓54%n=250 from settlement history–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline No00✓54%n=116 from settlement history–
Deal No00✓52%n=11 from settlement history–
Million / Billion / Trillion 10+ timesNo00✓51%n=31 from settlement history–
Iran / Iranian No00✓51%n=29 from settlement history–
Fake News No00✓50%n=187 from settlement history–
Communist / Communism No00✓50%n=117 from settlement history–
Russia / Russian No00✓46%n=28 from settlement history–
Boeing No00✓46%n=13 from settlement history–
Billion / Trillion No00✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Soybean No00✓44%n=15 from settlement history–
Economy / Economic No00✓43%n=4 from settlement history–
Stock Market No00✓41%n=188 from settlement history–
Mineral No00✓40%n=10 from settlement history–
Garden No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Great Hall No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Comrade No00✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
North Korea No00✓38%n=4 from settlement history–
Ukraine No00✓37%n=99 from settlement history–
Drone No00✓36%n=69 from settlement history–
Rare Earth No00✓36%n=10 from settlement history–
Manufacture / Manufacturing No00✓35%n=10 from settlement history–
United Nations / NATO No00✓34%n=104 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence No00✓30%n=256 from settlement history–
Peace in the Middle East No00✓21%n=37 from settlement history–
Taiwan No00✓20%n=23 from settlement history–
Six Seven No00✓19%n=71 from settlement history–
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency No00✓8%n=34 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

38 passages

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley; text: the White House (public domain) · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Prepared remarks

Thank you very much. Please, sit.

This is a great honor. President Xi, Madame Peng, and members of the Chinese delegation: Melania and I are delighted to welcome you once again to the White House. You are truly outstanding, amazing people.

The hospitality of the Chinese people was on full display during my visit to Beijing earlier this year, and tonight we hope to show you the same honor as you return to Washington for the first time in over a decade.

Long ago, European explorers first discovered the American continent as they searched for a new way to reach China in the East. That quest produced the modern world, this beautiful country, and ultimately, the long relationship between the Chinese and American people that we are celebrating very happily tonight.

East and West eventually did meet here in America, when the first formal delegation of Chinese diplomats came to the United States 158 years ago. In Boston, they met American thinkers such as Ralph Waldo Emerson and Henry David Thoreau. In New York, they dined with the governor, the mayor, and titans of Wall Street. And in Washington, they came to the White House for the first-ever state dinner between China and the United States.

Tonight we revive the spirit of that first encounter here on American soil as we are joined by some of the top leaders in business, culture, and government from our own time. On one side, China draws on thousands of years of history and tradition, from Sun Tzu to Sun Yat-sen. For Americans, we inherit a legacy of faith from Jerusalem to Rome, the democracy of ancient Athens, the triumphs of Sparta, and the freedom proclaimed in Philadelphia 250 years ago.

As the leaders of our two nations, President Xi and I both understand that we represent different systems, but the ties between our people endure. And we've never gotten along better.

Since the first trade ships from New York left the harbor to arrive on the banks of the Pearl River, Americans and Chinese have always exchanged goods, knowledge, customs, and ideas. This has been the foundation of commerce and mutual respect between our countries, and together we can continue to build a relationship that promotes prosperity and security for future generations.

And if I could go off script just for a second—[ laughter ]—I just want to say—I had to do it. I had to do it.

But as a special treat, in honor of President Xi and Madame Peng, I'd like to invite everyone in the room to visit through that beautiful curtain in the back, the door. It's all lit up, and it looks beautiful. It's 1 year away from completion, the new ballroom that you've heard about. And you will see something that I think you will really love.

Presidents have been trying to get this built for 150 years, and I can tell you that tonight, if we had it, we would have had way more than a thousand people with standing room only. And this room has about 145. That's about it. So they've been looking for this for over 150 years, all presidents, and they will shortly have it.

So, in honor of you, you'll be the first people to step foot on that, and we'll do that maybe after we're finished with the entertainment tonight. Anybody who wants to walk into a construction site that's nice and clean and sparkling—[ laughter ]—it's our honor to have you do so. But this is in honor of President Xi, Madame Peng.

In that spirit of friendship, it's my honor to present President Xi with a gift made by an extraordinary American artist, one of the greatest in the world, and designed in personal collaboration with Melania and myself.

And the bald eagle is a national symbol of the United States and an embodiment of the free and soaring spirit of America. And we hope it will find a nice place, a wonderful place in Beijing. It's your honor.

President Xi and Madame Peng, Melania and I want to thank you for making your journey—and it is a long journey—to America during our 250th year.

I'd like to raise a glass and propose a toast to President Xi, Madame Peng, and the long relationship between China and America that has bridged thousands of miles and spanned hundreds of years. And may all of our people know a future of harmony, peace, and success.

And we're all here today and tonight to honor you both. And thank you very much for coming to America.

Thank you. And now I'd like to ask President Xi to come up and say a few words.

Thank you all very much. Thank you.

President Xi

Honorable President Donald J. Trump and Mrs. Melania Trump, ladies and gentlemen, dear friends: Thank you, Mr. President and Mrs. Trump for extending to my wife and me your gracious hospitality and thoughtful arrangements. You and Mrs. Trump have made many special arrangements for our visit, all prepared with meticulous care and consideration in every detail. You make us feel truly at home.

I would also like to extend my sincere greetings to Americans from all sectors of society who care about China-U.S. relations and support the further growth of our bilateral ties.

As I speak, my compatriots in China are celebrating the Mid-Autumn Festival, a cherished occasion for family reunion in Chinese tradition. I wish you all a very happy Mid-Autumn Festival and my best wishes to you and your families.

In May this year, President Trump paid a successful visit to China at my invitation. We agreed to build a constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability. During the visit, President Trump warmly invited me to visit the United States, and I have come as promised.

In less than half a year, the Chinese and American Presidents have exchanged state visits, making history in our bilateral engagement.

Today President Trump and I had sincere and in-depth exchanges and reached common understanding on many issues. This has added new substance to the constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability and provided new strategic guidance for China-U.S. relations.

Not long ago, the United States celebrated the 250th anniversary of its independence. On that occasion, I sent my congratulations on behalf of the Chinese Government and people. The past 200-plus years have also witnessed friendly exchanges between China and the United States.

Over 200 years ago, soon after its independence, the United States turned its eyes to China. Our two countries started trading with each other, exchanging goods to meet each other's needs and draw on our complementary strengths. In fact, President George Washington had personally acquired a large collection of Chinese porcelain.

Over 80 years ago, the Chinese and American people stood shoulder to shoulder in a fight against Japanese militarist aggressors. Together, we opened the famous Hump air route over the Himalayas. During the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression, Chinese soldiers and civilians rescued hundreds of American pilots at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Chinese lives. Such a friendship forged in blood and fire will surely live on through the generations.

Over 50 years ago, ping-pong diplomacy between China and the United States opened the long-closed door of bilateral exchanges. With the political wisdom embodied in a small ball moving the globe, the older generation of Chinese and American statesmen, led by Chairman Mao Zedong and President Richard Nixon, set in motion the historic process of normalizing relations between our two countries.

The redwood trees that President Nixon had presented as a special state gift have taken root in Zhejiang Province, where I worked for several years.

Over 20 years ago, an American named Ronald Sakolsky gave financial support to Yin Yuzhen, a Chinese desert control worker, for her tree planting effort. Just recently, Ronald, now an elderly man, returned to China. He saw with his own eyes that the desert back then had turned into a lush forest.

This story touches the hearts of many Chinese people and stands as a shining example of the friendly exchanges between our two peoples. Exchanges have helped promote heart-to-heart communication between our people and cemented public support for Sino-U.S. friendship and cooperation.

Ladies and gentlemen, dear friends, reviewing the past gives us new perspectives. Today, we have come to another historic juncture for China-U.S. relations.

President Trump has pledged to make America great again, and led the American people in making significant strides. China is committed to achieving great national rejuvenation, and Chinese modernization has kept breaking new ground. These two goals are both ambitious and can surely be mutually reinforcing.

China and the United States must act as responsible major countries, meet the expectations of our peoples, keep pace with the trend of our times, and explore a new approach for major countries to get along with each other.

Like a river that never stops flowing, history never stands still. The friendship between the two peoples is a worthy cause that holds great promise.

Let us join hands and move forward side by side. Together, let us nurture the beautiful flowers of Sino-U.S. friendship. Together, let us write a new chapter in our friendly relations.

Now I would like to propose a toast to the health of President and Mrs. Trump, to the prosperity and progress of China and the United States, and to the friendship between our two peoples. Cheers. Cheers.

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