Remarks transcript, Sep 12, 2026 (Donald Trump)

Remarks Prior to a Meeting With Prime Minister Micheál Martin of Ireland and an Exchange With Reporters in Dublin, Ireland

In remarks on Sep 12, 2026, Donald Trump said 9 of the 32 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 32 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

Updated

Markets

32 words · 9 settled yes · our count agreed on 32 of 32

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Ireland 5+ timesYes919✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Iran 3+ timesYes711✓63%n=67 from settlement history–
Farm / Farmer Yes44✓51%n=9 from settlement history–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline Yes33✓48%n=102 from settlement history–
Tariff Yes22✓53%n=238 from settlement history–
Golf / Golfer / Golfing Yes22✓48%n=14 from settlement history–
Irish Open Yes25✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Israel / Israeli Yes12✓43%n=96 from settlement history–
Immigrant / Immigration Yes11✓28%n=13 from settlement history–
Invest / Invested / Investment No04✓63%n=17 from settlement history–
Biden No00✓56%n=349 from settlement history–
China / Chinese No00✓53%n=74 from settlement history–
Fake News No00✓49%n=179 from settlement history–
Hottest No00✓47%n=337 from settlement history–
Russia / Russian No00✓44%n=22 from settlement history–
Stock Market No00✓42%n=174 from settlement history–
Ukraine No00✓40%n=93 from settlement history–
Vote No00✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Doonbeg No03✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Dublin No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Hotel No02✓–n=1 too little history for a probability–
European Union / EU No00✓39%n=9 from settlement history–
Inflation No00✓38%n=56 from settlement history–
Windmill No00✓38%n=70 from settlement history–
Greenland No00✓31%n=57 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence No00✓31%n=243 from settlement history–
Afford / Affordable / Affordability No00✓31%n=92 from settlement history–
NATO No00✓27%n=96 from settlement history–
America First No00✓24%n=93 from settlement history–
Crypto / Cryptocurrency / Bitcoin No00✓12%n=25 from settlement history–
Ceasefire No00✓7%n=107 from settlement history–
Crypto / Bitcoin No00✓5%n=500 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

121 passages

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Prepared remarks

Prime Minister Martin0:01

Could I just, first of all, say: President Trump, welcome to Ireland, and welcome to Farmleigh. And as I said earlier, we're very mindful of the fact that, this week, America in particular, and the entire world, has been marking the 25th anniversary of the murderous attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, and I know you gave a significant speech at the Pentagon. And to say we're thinking of you. We're thinking of all Americans. It had a deep impact in Ireland at the time. We had a National Day of Mourning in the aftermath of 9/11. Over a thousand were of Irish heritage.

Right.

Prime Minister Martin0:41

We'll always remember the incredible courage, bravery, and sacrifice of the first responders, the firefighters, the NYPD, the Port Authority, the people who put themselves in harm's way, sacrificed their lives to try and save the lives of their fellow citizens. And in many ways, it remains inspirational to the entire world the bravery of those American first responders. And so, that's something we're very conscious of.

We're particularly pleased that you've made it for the Irish Open.

Right.

Prime Minister Martin1:10

You did say to me 12 months ago that you would do everything possible to get here when it was announced that Doonbeg would be the venue for the Irish Open. And I think it illustrates the very strong sporting relationship between our two countries and what a great year it's been for you with the World Cup, which we all watched avidly. We didn't make it through to it, but we still watched it all. All the stars were playing. You have the Olympics, Los Angeles, coming. We had American college football recently, North Carolina and Texas.

That's right.

Prime Minister Martin1:46

And you know, we have the Irish Open now. We have the Ryder Cup next year.

So the sporting connections between our two countries are huge, and the people of Doonbeg are particularly appreciative of your investment and the investment of your family. And we welcome your family and are delighted that they could make the trip.

In terms of the investment in Doonbeg, there's approximately 250 people in that remote part of West Clare.

That's right.

Prime Minister Martin2:11

And it's a valuable, valuable asset to the area, and they're particularly welcoming of it.

And in many ways, I think that illustrates the strength of the economic relationship between our two countries. I know the Ambassador is taking you to his residence, where you will meet hundreds of Irish business people who have investments in America, who are employing American people. Over 200,000 Americans employed by Irish companies. And yes, there are American companies in Ireland who are employing about 245,000 Irish people. They get access to the European market from the base here and the Asian market, and they do particularly well.

So it's a very strong, old relationship. I showed you the gift that you gave me—or gift to the Irish state—outside, which is the Declaration of American Independence in 1776, and then you have a lovely book that you presented to me, which I have on display now in government buildings with nine people, some born in Ireland—three born in Ireland, and others of Irish descent. The printer was an Irishman, and so on, like that.

And that's how long, enduring, and how deep the relationship between our two countries is. And that's why we're very pleased to welcome you to Ireland, to this house here, Farmleigh House, which I think reflects part of that as well.

Well, thank you very much. And we've been friends, and we've had a great relationship right from the beginning. And I did make a promise to come over. I said, if I can, I'm going to do it because we talked about it.

The Irish Open is a very big event in Ireland and, frankly, all over the world, really, because it's a great golf event, and you have the best players in the world right now. In fact, Shane is—an Irish person named Shane; just call him Shane—[ laughter ]—is winning and he's leading. You know, he's got a long way to go.

Prime Minister Martin4:03

Everybody is watching. [ Laughter ]

They're all watching. And Rory is playing well, but he always plays well.

Prime Minister Martin4:08

He always plays well.

But there, you have a lot of great Irish players that are doing very well at an Irish course, and it's been a tremendous success. It's rated one of the greatest courses in the world, and I'm very honored to have it. I've owned it for—I built it, it's about 22 years, right on the ocean. So it's very exciting, and I'll be going there later.

We're doing business. We've had some discussions on trade and various other things. We have a big relationship with Ireland, and that will continue stronger than ever.

But it's really—we're doing very well. The two countries do very well together. We've had a very—long, but I would say it's never been as good as it is right now.

So it's—thank you for hosting us. And I know you're going to the Irish Open tomorrow.

Prime Minister Martin4:53

Yes.

You're going spend the whole day there.

Prime Minister Martin4:55

All day there, yes.

And you're going to see some good golfers, that I can tell you.

Prime Minister Martin5:00

Absolutely. Looking forward to it.

Well, thank you very much. It's really an honor.

Prime Minister Martin5:03

Thank you. Thank you.

Questions and answers

Qreporter5:05

When will the war in Iran end, Mr. President?

I think very soon. I think it will be probably right after the midterms. They're trying to hold out as long as they can to complicate the election. But I think people are wise to it, because Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. It's very simple. This is a very simple thing. Iran cannot have. They were 2 weeks away from having a nuclear weapon. If they had it, they would have blown up Israel, they would have blown up the Middle East, and they would have hit some of Europe's—in my opinion, Europe's cities and beyond cities. And they would have probably hit us too before we put out the fire.

But they cannot have a nuclear weapon. But I would say shortly, and oil will come tumbling down. When that happens, oil prices will come tumbling down.

Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman bin Abd al-Aziz Al Saud and King Salman bin Abd al-Aziz Al Saud of Saudi Arabia/Republican National Committee Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas

Qreporter5:54

How was your call with MBS? And what is the U.S. willing to do?

Well, I have had a call with MBS. He's a good friend of mine, and it's going to—I can just say everything is going to work out fine and dandy. It's going to be very good.

See, you don't get involved in these things. You have a very nice—it's been nice being over here, but you have your own difficulties, I would imagine, right?

Prime Minister Martin6:15

Now and again, yes. [ Laughter ]

But no, I think it's going to—it's all working out fine.

I would say shortly after the—we had a great convention. We went to Dallas, Texas. We had a midterm convention. It was never done by either party, and it's probably going to become a staple.

Prime Minister Martin6:35

I saw that.

It was so successful, so beautiful. The arenas were packed both days, and frankly, nobody expected to ever see anything like it. It felt—I think it actually felt better than the so-called original conventions. It was as good as it could get. And the Republicans had a good time. We had a good time. A lot of great people running for office, and they're sane people. You know, we're running—we're running against some major insanity, but we don't have to get into that. But major insanity. But we had a tremendous—that was a tremendous 2-day period.

Qreporter7:13

Mr. President, what would you say——

Do you assess that Iran is responsible for the East-West pipeline?

Mr. President, what do you say to some people in Ireland who say the U.S. is facilitating genocide in Gaza and also facilitating Israel around the illegal occupation of territories in the West Bank?

Well, when you say Gaza, you know, we put out the fire. We got all the hostages back. There's very little happening right now in Gaza. That's not the place that people are talking about actually now. It was all about Gaza, and we got involved, and we facilitated a peace of a kind. But we got all the hostages back—some dead, some living. We got them all back.

They wanted—you know, it's amazing, the parents of those dead hostages, they knew they were dead. They wanted their son or daughter, but mostly sons—they wanted their sons back, their babies. The mothers said their babies. They wanted the babies back just as much as though their son was alive. And we got them back. We got every one of them back.

We had—in the end, we had 28 that were dead, and we had a lot that were alive. If you go back over the, you know, 3, 4-year period, we got many people—[ inaudible ]. But I always said that last 30 or 40 is going to be very tough because of what happened.

But we are—if you look at Gaza, there's a lot of good relationships taking place right now in Gaza. It's been quite amazing. I think we've done a great job. Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, the whole group, they've done a very good job with it.

Qreporter8:55

Mr. President——

Prime Minister Martin8:55

Can I just say—

Sorry, just—just to make—the President discussed the need for ongoing humanitarian aid to go into Gaza, and we will continue our discussions in terms of Irish aid and support going into Gaza. The President is trying to facilitate that.

Yes. I will—we'll get it done.

Prime Minister Martin9:13

Yes. I think that's something—the peace plan that the President has announced is something we support, the 20-point peace plan. And it is difficult and it is challenging, but I think it's the right direction, particularly the humanitarian aspect——

We'll get that done.

Prime Minister Martin9:29

——and we think we can do more there.

We're able to get that very definitely. So I'll let Dan Scavino work on it, okay?

Qreporter9:36

Mr. President, what would you say to the thousands of people——

Mr. President, do you think that President Catherine Connolly——

Mr. President, what would you say to the thousands of Irish people who will be protesting today because they don't want you to come to Ireland?

I didn't know there was a protest. [ Laughter ] It can't be a very big one because we've been all over Ireland today already. It's early in the morning, and we've been all—we landed early, and we got here, and we've made a couple of visits, as you know, and we have others to make.

But I haven't seen any protests. It's a friendly protest, let's say. But we have a great relationship with Ireland. The United States and Ireland have a fantastic relationship, a very profitable one for Ireland.

Prime Minister Martin10:16

Yes.

Less profitable for us, to be honest with you. A rather big surplus in your country. You can be very proud of your country because there's a big surplus, right?

But, no, we have a great relationship. I have seen no protests.

Qreporter10:34

President Trump, is Iran responsible——

Say it?

Qreporter10:38

Is Iran responsible for the attack on the East-West pipeline? And when do you think Saudi Arabia is going to be able to get that back up?

Well, I think they are. Probably they are. You know, they're on the balls of their feet right now, but I think they are. They've been in charge of that for a while. We've had discussions. The Houthis called us, and they don't want to fight with us. They let us know they don't want to fight with us. They don't want me to go after. They don't want us to go after them. But they've called and they've talked to us, and they don't want us to. They would much prefer not having us involved. And they're letting most ships go through. There's just one country that they're not too happy with, and we'll get that straightened out.

But I have to say we've done a great job here. You know, we control, as you know—we, really, very powerfully control the Hormuz Strait, and nobody saw that happening. But we have very powerful control over it.

Qreporter11:36

Mr. President——

And we have a naval blockade that's been so incredible, or your oil prices would be much higher. We're taking a lot of boats out. We take out on average 25 boats a day, most of them at night, but we take on average about 25 boats out every single day.

Qreporter11:54

Mr. President, Catherine Connolly has been critical of your operations in Gaza and elsewhere. What did you discuss in your meeting with Catherine Connolly earlier today?

About what?

Qreporter12:05

She's been critical of your foreign policy in the past in relation to operations in Venezuela and also in the Middle East. What did you discuss with her today?

Do you want to talk about that, Monica? Do you have anything about it?

U.S. Chief of Protocol Monica Crowley12:15

About your conversation with the President today.

Prime Minister Martin12:17

With the president.

Ambassador Crowley12:18

Yes. The President had a very constructive conversation with President Connolly today about a whole range of issues, including energy and European supplies of energy. Europe has plenty of sources of energy right here on the continent and in the surrounding waters of Europe, and they had that conversation very specifically.

Okay?

Qreporter12:42

Did President Connolly bring up the conflicts in the Middle East with you?

We discussed a lot of things quickly. We weren't there very long, but it was a very nice meeting we had, a very respectful meeting. We did discuss Northern Ireland. I always find it to be a very interesting—as we did.

Prime Minister Martin13:02

As we did earlier.

I find it to be a very interesting discussion because we know people of Northern Ireland and we know people of Ireland, and I sometimes say, "Hey, when are you guys getting together?" Right? I do ask that question every time.

Prime Minister Martin13:15

You do.

But——

Prime Minister Martin13:16

Your consistent efforts. [ Laughter ]

I'm sure it is—I'm sure it's complicated, but life is complicated. But now it's—we discussed a lot of things, a lot of very positive things. We have a very positive trade relationship with our own.

Qreporter13:31

Mr. President, is your hotel being held up by—President Trump, is your hotel being held up by environmentalists?

Go ahead.

Qreporter13:39

How was your phone call with Prime Minister Andy Burnham last week? And did you talk about the Falkland Islands in Argentina?

Well, the Falkland Islands is very interesting because here we go again. I remember as a young boy, pretty young boy anyway, but the Falkland Islands, and I think it was a different country at that time, the U.K., a little bit. But they went in and they took it over. I'm not sure they're doing that. They have a little problem with immigration. They have a little problem with energy. And they have some other problems they have to take care of.

So I don't know. You know, I don't know if they're going to be willing to travel that far. That is very far away. Do you know, you're talking about——

Qreporter14:18

Do you think they're still British, sir?

You're talking about weeks by boat. So I don't know. It's—I'm sure I'll be called into that potential disaster, but if they do, I'll probably be able to settle it out. But right now you have two countries that are not happy, concerning the Falklands. It's a good question.

Is that Bev [Beverley Turner, GB News] that asked that question?

Qreporter14:43

It is.

A really good question, Bev.

Qreporter14:43

Will you return to Ireland for the Ryder Cup next year, President?

Say it?

Qreporter14:47

Will you return to Ireland for the Ryder Cup next year?

I will. Absolutely.

I do think it should be held at Turnberry. I do think the Ryder Cup should be held at Turnberry, but it won't be probably, because I think they give it out 10 years in advance, right?

Prime Minister Martin15:03

It's going to be at Adare Manor next year.

Is that what it is? Yes.

Qreporter15:09

What's your view on Irish unification, Mr. President?

On Irish what?

Qreporter15:13

Unification. What's your view on it?

Well, I don't want to cause any problems—[ laughter ]—but I will tell you, I'd love to see it unified. I have friends on both sides, great people. They're Irish people. How can they be bad, right? I'd love to see it unified. I think it'll be a great feather in everybody's cap if that happens. It's going to happen eventually.

You know what? The way I look at it, it's going to happen eventually. Might as well happen now. We're talking about it. And you got the right man over here to get it moving.

But yes, I'd like. I think it would be a fantastic thing. Now, the U.K. will have something to say about it, obviously, but I think it would be a great thing. I mean, how can it be bad?

Qreporter15:59

President Trump, environmentalists are trying to stop——

Go ahead.

Qreporter16:07

Are you considering withdrawing from the USMCA deal?

What does that mean?

Qreporter16:12

Are you considering withdrawing from the USMCA deal with U.S., Mexico, and Canada?

That's a strange question to be asked over here. [ Laughter ]

No, we get along great. We're going to have a great relationship with Mexico. We actually have a good one with Canada, but the United States has been ripped off for 50 years by Canada. We don't need their product, and they need our product. They do all of their business, almost, with us, and we do very little with them.

But you know, they've taken advantage of our farmers. And also, that's—Canada wants to make a deal very badly, just like Iran wants to make a deal very badly. You know, I just don't think they're ready. But Canada wants to make a deal. I hope Canada appreciates being in the same sentence with Iran. That's a very interesting—Canada and Iran, both—Canada wants to make a deal, and Iran wants to make a deal. At the right time, both of those things could happen.

But with Iran, we're winning very substantially. We have a lot of great cards, but they cannot have a nuclear weapon. Canada has to treat our farmers better, and they can't charge our farmers tariffs. They were charging our farmers 400-percent tariffs and many other things. So when those things go away—they're willing to get rid of all of them. You'll probably see a deal with Canada fairly soon.

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