Donald Trump: CNBC: Fast Money, Jul 2, 2026
In the interview on Jul 2, 2026, Donald Trump said 18 of the 23 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
23 words · 18 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear | Yes | 72%n=165 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 72%n=97 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 70%n=29 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 69%n=170 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 63%n=287 from settlement history | – |
| Election | Yes | 63%n=106 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 62%n=113 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 60%n=109 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 60%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 55%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 55%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 53%n=157 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 52%n=196 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 45%n=271 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | Yes | 45%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 40%n=182 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 30%n=53 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 8%n=420 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | No | 50%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Warsh | No | 47%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 44%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Anthropic / Claude | No | 37%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 37%n=48 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-02:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-02:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP