Donald Trump: Fox News: Fox & Friends, Jul 28, 2026
In the interview on Jul 28, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 33 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
33 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 66%n=190 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 64%n=46 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 64%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 61%n=310 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 55%n=207 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 48%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | Yes | 46%n=77 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Obama 4+ times | Yes | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 44%n=299 from settlement history | – |
| Hell | Yes | 43%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 56%n=148 from settlement history | – |
| Election | No | 56%n=123 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Russian | No | 56%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 55%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 52%n=38 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 48%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Filibuster | No | 47%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Boeing | No | 47%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 45%n=187 from settlement history | – |
| Putin | No | 44%n=75 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 43%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 41%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | No | 41%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 41%n=26 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 40%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 40%n=91 from settlement history | – |
| COVID | No | 39%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 36%n=76 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 36%n=204 from settlement history | – |
| Gay | No | 31%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 27%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 17%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 14%n=456 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-28:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-28:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP