Donald Trump: Punchbowl News interview, Aug 6, 2026
In the interview on Aug 6, 2026, Donald Trump said 11 of the 22 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
22 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 68%n=203 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 64%n=322 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 60%n=219 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 53%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 49%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 48%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 44%n=83 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 43%n=201 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 36%n=216 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | Yes | 35%n=72 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | Yes | 12%n=471 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 76%n=52 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 54%n=158 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 53%n=151 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 45%n=146 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 43%n=311 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 42%n=42 from settlement history | – |
| Healthcare | No | 42%n=36 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | No | 38%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | No | 32%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| Hoax | No | 23%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 17%n=67 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the broadcaster's video captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-06:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-06:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP