Donald Trump: Tele-Rallies on July 29, Jul 29, 2026
At the rally on Jul 29, 2026, Donald Trump said 12 of the 18 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
18 words · 12 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Save America | Yes | 69%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 62%n=314 from settlement history | – |
| Poll | Yes | 58%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | Yes | 55%n=191 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 52%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Job 2+ times | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Congress 2+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Kansas 7+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| State 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transportation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 47%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Fantastic | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | 58%n=171 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 51%n=194 from settlement history | – |
| Gun | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hundred / Thousand 7+ times | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 41%n=65 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 34%n=71 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-29:rally-tele · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-29:rally-tele · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP