Will Donald Trump say “Whack Job / Wack Job”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Whack Job / Wack Job” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 1, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 68% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (5 rallies, 3 remarks; Sep 23, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 5/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Whack Job / Wack Job
- Probability
- 68% · n=5
- Settled
- 5/5 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2026 | Whack Job / Wack Job |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (7 of 31 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Whack Job / Wack Job | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (94 of 131 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Whack Job / Wack Job | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Whack Job / Wack Job | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Whack Job / Wack Job | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Whack Job / Wack Job”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Whack Job / Wack Job” at 5 of 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 1, 2026 (100%), most recently on Oct 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Whack Job / Wack Job” next time?
- 68%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Whack Job / Wack Job’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/wack-job-or-whack-job (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=wack%20job%20%2F%20whack%20job · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP