Donald Trump: Ribbon Cutting Ceremony, Sep 21, 2026
In remarks on Sep 21, 2026, Donald Trump said 0 of the 34 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
34 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | No | 57%n=359 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 55%n=246 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 55%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 2+ times | No | 54%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | No | 53%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 53%n=228 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 52%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 51%n=184 from settlement history | – |
| CNN | No | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Melania | No | 50%n=79 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | 47%n=101 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 47%n=345 from settlement history | – |
| Helicopter | No | 46%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Secret Service | No | 46%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 45%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Granite | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Granite / Marble | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hundred / Thousand 10+ times | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 41%n=183 from settlement history | – |
| Budget | No | 41%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Beautiful 2+ times | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Donation / Donate / Donated / Donating | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sikorsky / Lockheed | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sue / Sued / Suing | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taxpayer | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Rose Garden | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation / Inflationary | No | 37%n=60 from settlement history | – |
| Drone | No | 36%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Ballroom | No | 35%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Kennedy | No | 35%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| National Security | No | 34%n=23 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 31%n=252 from settlement history | – |
| Six Seven | No | 20%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 5%n=507 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript pending. Expected around Nov 2, 2026 from White House video captions, then the official transcript (American Presidency Project). Transcripts from this source are added when our worker runs, so there is no set time.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-21:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-21:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP