Remarks transcript, Jul 14, 2026 (Donald Trump)
In remarks on Jul 14, 2026, Donald Trump said 10 of the 22 words Kalshi listed; Parrot’s count agreed with all 22 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).
UpdatedMarkets
22 words · 10 settled yes · our count agreed on 22 of 22- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thank You | Yes | 11 | 27 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 9 | 12 | ✓ | 66%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | Yes | 9 | 9 | ✓ | 65%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Bad / Badly | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invest / Investment | Yes | 6 | 7 | ✓ | 40%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Deal | Yes | 4 | 5 | ✓ | 51%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 54%n=297 from settlement history | – |
| Lindsey / Graham | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 34%n=193 from settlement history | – |
| Soleimani | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 34%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear / Denuclearization | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=176 from settlement history | – |
| Russia | No | 0 | 1 | ✓ | 48%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 45%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Ukraine | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 42%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| Speech / Address | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Drone | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 38%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 33%n=45 from settlement history | – |
| Central Casting | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Excursion | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 29%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 0 | 2 | ✓ | 24%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 15%n=71 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
164 passages · part 1 of 2Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.
Prepared remarks
Well, thank you very much. We've had, already, a good meeting. We're going to decide to do a little lunch. It wasn't scheduled, but we are going to do it on the fly because we have a tremendous chemistry together.
The Prime Minister of Iraq has been amazing. He won an election that a lot of people didn't anticipate could be won by anybody else other than another person who was not, in my opinion, a good person—not good for America; I don't think good for Iraq.
And I played a role in—I mean, it was very important to me to have somebody get in there that can do the job and do it well. And we have a fantastic champion, a new champion. And he won the election very soundly, very conclusively. And he wasn't favored, but by the time they got to know him, he ended up winning. And he's going to be there for a long time.
So I just want to say it's a great honor to have the Prime Minister of Iraq with us. He's been a great fighter, and he's been a great fan of America. We'll be discussing that a little bit with you.
But they have tremendous oil reserves. They have tremendous potential wealth, and they have tremendous wealth—not only potential.
But he's done a fan—in a short period of time, he's changed that country so much, especially toward their thinking about the United States. And we have partnerships.
Chris was just saying we have tremendous oil partnerships all of a sudden being formed over the last short period of time. And I guess you're going to be announcing them this week or next week. But massive. The—among the largest.
So they have done a fantastic job over the last short period of—a very short period of time. But they have a great leader, the new Prime Minister. He's a great leader. I think he's going to be there for a long period of time.
And it's great to have you at the White House. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you very much.
And he's a young man. He's young, and he's handsome—[ laughter ]—which I don't like. I'm not happy about that. [ Laughter ]
[ Laughter ] Please, Mr. Prime Minster.
Thank you.
Thank you for the warm welcome, by His Excellency, President Trump. This is my first visit to United States of America. This visit was not just like any visit. Rather, its announcement of economic partnership, where I talk to His Excellency.
By the 30th of September, the U.S. forces will be out of Iraq, while the U.S. companies will be inside Iraq. While the social relations is about like economy, not like—about like military relations.
I would convey my greetings from the oldest civilization in the world. Because the economic and technology heart in the world. And I give great—my thanks to His Excellency, the President, for the warm welcome.
Questions and answers
Thank you. Thank you, Mr. President. I have a question for the Prime Minister——
Go ahead. Please.
and then for one—one for you, sir. If you don't mind me, I'm going to ask in Arabic.
And, Mr. President, if I may——
Who are you with?
I'm with Al Arabiya. I cover the Middle East. I'm a White House correspondent, but I'm the foreign pooler today.
Great.
Sir, is the military attack on Iran—is this a strategy to bring them back to the table, or is it to grade—to degrade them so the regime will eventually fall?
Well, we don't think we need the military there anymore. You know, it's a very—it's a big operation. And what we do have is the oil companies are all going in now, and they're doing partnerships with Iraq, and they're getting along very well.
The relationship is a whole big relationship where we don't need the military there. We're there to help them. We're there to protect them if need be. But we don't think that's going to be necessary.
And their primary—I consider it an opponent—they might have considered a friend, but I consider that an opponent—was Iran, was a big burden on Iraq because they were the bully of the Middle East, as you know.
And we were just talking about that, but they're not going to have that problem anymore because—Iran has been very much destabilized, and, really, their military power is just a tiny fraction of what it was just 4 months ago. So they're not going to have that problem.
I think that's—it's really—in a sense, it's given them freedom to do what they have to do, and I think that's one of the reasons that our oil companies are going in there at levels that have never been seen before.
So it's pretty great.
Do you want to answer the question?
He has to answer the question. Sorry, he has to answer the question, sorry. Sir.
Thank you for your question.
According to the program of the Government—is to restrict the position of weapons to the state. And this a basic point. And I have—and this is like a decision; it's not an option.
We received weapons by different factions. And he—whoever surrender his weapon turned into, like, a political or civilian, we will cooperate with them.
After the 30th of September, there is not any need for the presence of any faction. Because factions is a need; it's not a profession. There's not any justification for their existence after the 30th of September.
So, by the end of this year or by the beginning of the next year, we will announce the sovereignty conference is biggest conference in the region.
But the Iraqi decision is backed by the hand of the Iraqis only, and our security forces are capable of protecting their borders.
So, after the 30th of September, we never accept for any entity to carry weapons outside the control of the state.
Okay.
Thank you. Thank you, President Trump. I have two questions. I was wondering if you could explain your changing thinking on the Strait of Hormuz, applying a 20-percent fee. How did you get to the decision you just announced? And——
Yes. So, when I put that out yesterday—because we've been doing that for many, many years. It was never fair to me that we would be guarding the Strait when we basically don't take anything—we don't need the oil at all, and it wasn't important for us.
But it was important for allies. It was important for people that we get along with very well, including the, you know, major Gulf State countries.
So I put it out yesterday. I thought it was good. I was called by different people, different countries—Kings and Amirs and all of the people that we all know and we all love. And they've been—frankly, they've been very strong partners. And they said: "We'd love to do it a different way. We'd love to invest in the United States with billions and billions of dollars"—and continue our record setting, because we would—there's never been a time like this with the United States, with the factories, with the plants, with everything else—"and we would like to invest tremendously in the United States, as opposed to charging a fee."
And I like that actually, because I don't think anybody should be able to charge a fee for the Strait or for any other Strait relationship in terms of other sections of the world. I don't think anybody should be, really, in that position.
But we were doing it as a reimbursement. The Gulf States are going to invest a tremendous amount of money into the United States, and that was very satisfactory to me. I think it's actually much better.
If I could also ask: Are you aware of why the FBI is looking into Senator Graham's death? Have you gotten any updates on why they were at his home?
Well, I don't know why, because I think, you know, he had a problem. His father had a very similar problem, as you know. It's very unique.
At first, I heard it was clogged arteries, because he did have clogged arteries. He had a problem with that. He was—I wish he took better care of himself. I say, you can—you know, you can solve that problem.
But what happened is actually something that's very hard to detect. It was not related to the—any blockage. It was a totally different thing.
And supposedly—and I've watched all the medical reports. I've had the doctors from the White House come in and explain what happened, and this is something that is very—almost undetectable. And if it happens, there's not much you can do about it. Sounds unfortunate, but there's not much you can do about it.
If you look at his—his father died of the same thing at about the same age. So there was not much—they say it's almost undetectable.
You can detect it by if you have a very bad back. That's a sign. It's a bad sign. So, if anybody has a bad back—it's a pretty rough thing to think about, but the fact that's one of the primary signs. And he would tell me he had a bad back, but little did anyone realize it was for that.
So—and when that bursts—which it did; it burst—there's not much—so I don't see a lot of evil there. I don't—I know there's all sorts of conspiracy theories going along, and I don't think the FBI—I think the FBI is wasting their time if they're doing that.
Yes.
Just on the prior question. The Hormuz Strait toll idea. For you, that's dead now? That's completely gone?
No, I just told you. You have Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait—you know, primarily—and then others. They—I spoke to all of them, and they would love to invest more money in the United States at record amounts, and that would be very acceptable. And this way, there's no fee.
I don't like the concept of a fee, but at the same time, it's not fair that we're protecting this Strait for the entire world—for China and everyone. I don't mind protecting it for China. I don't mind protecting it for anybody. But it's unfair that we're not in somehow compensated.
And we've been doing this for many years. It's bothered me—25 years ago, it bothered me.
During my first term, I was doing things—like, you have to invest in the United States. And—but by doing it that way, there's no fee. They're investing, and they're getting a return on their money, and it's good.
But they're going to be making massive investments into the United States, and I like that much better.
Can I ask you a bit about the meeting in the U.S. today, whether you discussed OPEC? There's been some—there's been some reporting that Iraq is pushing for changes to OPEC, a larger share, and even that they might consider leaving it all, although the Prime Minister said not——
Well, you could ask the gentleman right here, because here he is.
Would you like to know about it?
Are you considering, Mr. Prime Minister, leaving OPEC? Or are you pushing for changes within it?
And, Mr. President, would you support his—Iraq requesting for changes?
Well, I support him. You know, I supported him very early in the—I endorsed him. Something I rarely do. But I've had great successes endorsing.
You know, we just had Colombia, which was a big one. Argentina was a big one. We had many—I've endorsed—I think everybody I've endorsed, from a foreign standpoint, they just win.
Yes.
And you know, I've been hearing great things. I—I'm a student of a lot of history, and I do know a lot about the history of Iraq. And I've watched what was happening in Iraq with the elections, and I put a very strong endorsement out because I was very unhappy with the man that was supposed to win the election.
And this great gentleman—I think he's going to end up being a great leader—he won. So, I'm very happy about that.
As far as OPEC, that's his decision. And you might ask him that question.
Please.
We are one of the countries that established OPEC. However, we need, like, a fair share for Iraq.
Iraq fought ISIS and terrorism at home with support of the United States of America. This fight with ISIS cost us, like, huge amounts of money and destroyed the Iraqi infrastructure. The damage that really what was against Iraq is more than $400 billion.
Until today—like, some Iraqi cities are totally destroyed. And they, like, live in camps. And I have a plan to get them back to their homes.
We need a fair share. We need a fair share for—[ inaudible ].
You know, I might just answer, because, if you remember, even though I was a civilian and had no thought of running for President, I got a disproportionate amount of publicity, as you probably heard. And I used to say: "Don't go into Iraq. Don't attack Iraq." Frankly, they attacked the wrong country, and they did a lot of damage.
Yes, please.
Thank you. Given how the Iranians have been behaving, do you have any regrets about lifting the naval blockade or giving the sanctions waivers?
No. No, I gave them a chance. I wanted to give them a chance at making a deal. You know, we had a deal 2 days ago. It was done, and then all of a sudden, they couldn't do it. They didn't like something about the deal. They couldn't do it. And they shot first. And that was a big mistake that they shot first, because we have been knocking the hell out of them.
They're very difficult people. Forty-seven years we put up with it. The SS Cole . You go back all the way. Thousands of people, thousands of Americans were killed. A lot of soldiers were killed. A lot of soldiers are walking around or not walking around—I mean, they've been so badly injured. The arms, the legs, the face, with the—Soleimani, with the bomb. They call it the roadside bomb. Most people call it the roadside bomb.
It's a disaster, and I killed him in my first administration. Had I not, it might be a different story today. He was a mad genius. He was a mad—probably a madman, but he was a general, and he had total control over the country. And I actually think the leaders of Iran were afraid of Soleimani.
But I killed him. And by the way, with him went a very bad person also. They happened to be meeting each other at the airport, and—a very bad person from Iraq—happened to be a leader of Iraq—happened to be killed in that same incident.
So I don't know if I did you a favor or not. I've never asked you that question. You probably would know better than me.
But no, I think that—I think that what we've done to Iran is, we've taken away all of their—almost all of their military capability.
Go ahead. You explain it. Explain it, please.
Hold it. He has to hear that.
Go ahead.
At that time, I was not in politics. In my visit, like, I'd like to talk about the future. [ Inaudible ]—now we are, like, fed up with the past.
Thank you, Mr. President. Mr. Kurd is here. [ Laughter ]
Mr. President, thank you for your time. Last year in May, the Prime Minister of Kurdistan region, Masrour Barzani, signed about $110 billion in energy deals with U.S. companies here in Washington, DC.
Right. That's right.
Mr. President, if Baghdad and Erbil work together better, that investment could grow, grow, grow. What is your message and advice to the leaders in Baghdad and Erbil to work together?
Why I am asking this question: because you are our miracle-makers, Mr. President.
Thank—I love this question. That's—[ laughter ]—that's my favorite question so far, by far. Thank you very much for the question.
Look, Baghdad, I think, and I and—and this country, we're going to make some tremendous music together. We haven't been dealing very much over the last 4 or 5 years, with the previous administration.
Iraq has tremendous potential because of their oil and because of other things, but because of their oil, and we're going to be doing a lot of deals. We're going to create a lot of jobs for both countries. And we're going to be taking out a lot of oil.
A lot of oil is coming out, and the American companies are doing it. Mostly American companies now. They don't want to do business with others. They want to do business with America, and that's good. And that's one of the reasons that I felt so strongly that this was going to be a great Prime Minister, and I fought for that.
And, Mr. President, another question for the Prime Minister.
Go ahead.
How would you describe your relationship with Kurdistan Regional Government at this time? Because Prime Minister yesterday had a statement and fully support you.
I look at Iraq as a body. Each part of Iraq is part of my own body. So I would never distinguish between two—any organ. And I cannot cut off any part of any organ from my own body.
Kurdistan is such an important part of Iraq, no different than Basrah and other provinces.
But because such nice things were said about him, that means he likes the man that said those nice things.
Go ahead, please.
Thank you so much, Mr. President. I have a question for you and a question for the Prime Minister.
Go ahead.
The first question, Mr. Prime Minister: Why did you choose the United States as your first trip abroad? And what steps—concrete steps do you take when you go back to Iraq to make sure that the agreements you are reaching in Washington, DC, implemented?
I inherited such a heavy burden—country. I have a master's degree in finance. I analyzed the economic situation of the country.
With this burden, I need such a strategic partner to really lift this burden. The most important strategic partnership in the world is the United States of America.
So it wasn't just like any visit or came out of—[ inaudible ]. So it's not emotional, it's about money.
Please.
Thank you, Mr. President. Inflation's slowed to 3.5 percent in June.
Yes, thank you.
Will this trend hold now that strikes on Iran have resumed?
I think so. I think it's going to—inflation is down. We inherited the worst inflation in the history of our country. They say 48 years. It was the worst in the history of our country—from Biden, Sleepy Joe. He might have been sleepy, but, boy, he could create inflation like nobody.
And I inherited that, and I got blamed for it. And it's not my fault. We are putting it to sleep, and we've done a great job—Scott and Howard and Marco and even Pete, because he's watching his dollars, right?
But they've done a fantastic job. We've all done a fantastic job.
So we had the worst inflation in history, and—the history of our country. I mean, we had months where it was 9 and 10 percent, and now we have—a report just came out. It was just released. And thank you for bringing it up. But the report was incredible. Inflation is way down. That means prices are coming way down, and we're doing a great job.
And remember that for the midterms, I say to that camera. Remember that. Because nobody else could do it. Prices are way down. Prices are coming way down, and we're going to bring them much lower yet.
President Trump, people around the world and around the Nation are anticipating your big announcement on Thursday night regarding election—machines and integrity. Can you give us sort of a sneak peek about what to expect and tell the audience in America——
Well, I'd rather save it. It will concern that subject, and we'll have a couple of other things to say also.
Why should people watch, though?
But I'd rather save it. But it's really big news. It's really, really big news, and our country has to shape up. But that's—what we're going to be talking about Thursday is—it doesn't get bigger, because without free and fair elections, you don't have a country. We'll be discussing other things too, but it's going to be a very big announcement. Yes.
Please.
Mr. President, your administration pushed hard to shape Iraq's leadership and tied U.S. support to disarming Iran-backed factions. With the September 15 deadline weeks away, what happening if Baghdad misses it? And does the U.S. troops withdrawal from Kurdistan region still proceed on schedule?
I think everything's on schedule. We have a great—here we are. I mean, we're right now—I even called for a lunch that wasn't scheduled. Okay? So, in that way—but, no. We usually—we—I don't think I've ever done that, where we didn't have lunch, I said, "Let's have lunch." You know why? Because I like him.
A reasonable lunch. [ Laughter ]
Sir, do you want this Russia sanctions bill signed within the next week or two? And will you sign it?
Well, I know that Lindsey wanted it very badly. I think they may be adding Iran to it. They're going to add Iran, which is a very big thing, if they did that. They may add Hizballah too. Just put them—if you do business with Hizballah.
So we're looking at that, but they're—they're seriously thinking.
And this is in honor of Lindsey. This was his thing. He wanted this more than any other thing. You know, you know he felt. And there's a good chance that it gets done. But they'd like to add Iran, and they'd like to add Hizballah to it. That's what I'm hearing. So——
And if that means secondary sanctions on China, India, you're okay with that?
Well, we'll have to look. That hasn't been discussed.
Thank you, Mr. President. My question for you: The Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaydi, has launched a campaign to bring weapons held by militia under the control of the state. How does your administration supports him to accomplish this vision? And my second question: How do you envision the future relations between Kurdistan region and Iraq?
I think everything is going to work out. I think people are—the Middle East, believe it or not, is coming together. We're getting rid of the bully of the Middle East. Iran was the bully of the Middle East. They bullied Iraq. They bullied every country. They were—they—there was fear all over the Middle East with other countries. I understand that. But there was fear.
But there's no fear anymore because their military capability has been knocked to hell, and there's no fear. I think the Middle East is coming together like it's never come together before. You can't have a dominant factor like Iran that—that would kill 52,000 protesters.
You know they kill. Nobody likes talking about that. I don't like talking about it. They killed 52,000 protesters.
So the bottom line: All regions, I believe, are coming together, and I think it's going to be—this is going to be one of the great leaders right here. It's going to be one of the great leaders in the Middle East.
Go ahead, please.
Just explain that, please.
And I think we could go into this for a long time, and the bottom line is that we have a fantastic relationship with many countries now.
We just had a—I just came back from NATO. Many of you were there and you saw how that worked out. It was a phenomenal—it was a lovefest, to be honest. And they love the United States. They even like me, but they love the United States. And we're going to cut costs there by hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe. But the NATO event was incredible.
Today's event is incredible. This is a potentially really great—country, and many people would say it's a great country. We're helping it. We want to help it.
We have a fantastic relationship with the new Prime Minister. He's a strong person. He's a very brilliant guy. He's—very much acknowledged, or he couldn't have won that election. That was a highly competitive election, and he went out and won. And it's a big story. I mean, it's a big, big story.
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