Will Donald Trump say “Tampon Tim”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Tampon Tim” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=5, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 0/5Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tampon Tim
- Probability
- 41% · n=5
- Settled
- 0/5 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 5 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | Tampon Tim |  Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (94 of 131 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Tampon Tim | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (30 of 40 known appearances transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Tampon Tim | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (1 of 1 known appearance transcribed; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Tampon Tim |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Tampon Tim | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tampon Tim”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Tampon Tim” at any of the 5 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tampon Tim” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=5). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tampon Tim’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tampon-tim (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tampon%20tim · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP