Donald Trump: Announcement, Jul 20, 2026
In remarks on Jul 20, 2026, Donald Trump said 11 of the 25 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
25 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Election | Yes | 61%n=116 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | 58%n=37 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 57%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 52%n=127 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 52%n=302 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 40%n=139 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 38%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 38%n=74 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | Yes | 30%n=289 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | Yes | 27%n=63 from settlement history | – |
| Hezbollah / Hamas | Yes | 25%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Trump | No | 47%n=70 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 47%n=203 from settlement history | – |
| Cuba / Cuban | No | 46%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| First Term | No | 43%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 42%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| Spain | No | 41%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Alien | No | 39%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 34%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 32%n=174 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 31%n=129 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 28%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 28%n=198 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 19%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 12%n=442 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-20:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-20:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP