Donald Trump: Ingraham Angle, Sep 11, 2026
In the interview on Sep 11, 2026, Donald Trump said 7 of the 26 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
26 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | Yes | 64%n=347 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 64%n=100 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | Yes | 58%n=237 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 51%n=177 from settlement history | – |
| Xi | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Radical Left | Yes | 43%n=110 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | Yes | 34%n=241 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 76%n=187 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 3+ times | No | 73%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 67%n=221 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 56%n=172 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 55%n=105 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 54%n=94 from settlement history | – |
| Nvidia | No | 46%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Manufacture / Manufacturing | No | 45%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | No | 45%n=55 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 45%n=335 from settlement history | – |
| Chip / Semiconductor | No | 43%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | No | 43%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | No | 42%n=48 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | 34%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Taiwan | No | 33%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | No | 32%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 22%n=90 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=499 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 11%n=105 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the broadcaster's video captions (his turns only); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-09-11:interview · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-09-11:interview · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP