Donald Trump: Tele-Rallies on August 24, Aug 24, 2026
At the rally on Aug 24, 2026, Donald Trump said 8 of the 18 words Polymarket listed.
UpdatedMarkets
18 words · 8 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transgender | Yes | 56%n=218 from settlement history | – |
| Farmer | Yes | 54%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| State 5+ times | Yes | 48%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Respect / Respects / Respected | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Indy / Race | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 46%n=88 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | 45%n=85 from settlement history | – |
| Job 3+ times | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Landslide | No | 63%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Ballot | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ukraine | No | 48%n=86 from settlement history | – |
| Border 3+ times | No | 47%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Impeach / Impeachment | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 46%n=78 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 45%n=325 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 36%n=229 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 17%n=95 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | 17%n=17 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-08-24:rally-tele · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-08-24:rally-tele · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP