Donald Trump: Freedom 250 Grand Prix Showcase, Jul 9, 2026
In remarks on Jul 9, 2026, Donald Trump said 3 of the 25 words Kalshi listed.
UpdatedMarkets
25 words · 3 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | Yes | 57%n=39 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 54%n=176 from settlement history | – |
| 250 | Yes | 40%n=50 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 75%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear | No | 71%n=169 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | No | 66%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Iran 5+ times | No | 63%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | No | 62%n=294 from settlement history | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | No | 59%n=22 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | No | 53%n=54 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 51%n=200 from settlement history | – |
| Gas / Gasoline | No | 47%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | 46%n=66 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 42%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| NATO | No | 40%n=84 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender | No | 38%n=166 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | No | 38%n=121 from settlement history | – |
| Greenland | No | 37%n=51 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | No | 36%n=62 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 35%n=189 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 35%n=281 from settlement history | – |
| Dumbocrat / Dumacrat | No | 34%n=18 from settlement history | – |
| World Cup | No | 29%n=58 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 23%n=67 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 15%n=432 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 23:45 UTC.
Transcript
Transcript overdue. We expected it from the official transcript (American Presidency Project); it has not appeared yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/appearances/donald-trump:2026-07-09:remarks · words: /api/v1/brief?appearance=donald-trump:2026-07-09:remarks · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP