Remarks transcript, Sep 16, 2026 (Donald Trump)

Remarks and an Exchange With Reporters Upon Arrival in Charlotte, North Carolina

In remarks on Sep 16, 2026, Donald Trump said 35 of the 61 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 29 of 61 settlements. Full transcript below (presidency.ucsb.edu, public domain).

Updated

Markets

61 words · 35 settled yes · our count agreed on 29 of 61

backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.

Listed words: result, our count under the market rule, the count over every speaker, whether they agree, and the probability (a walk-forward backtest on settled rows)
WordResultOur countAll speakersAgreesProbabilityMarket
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ timesYes88✗34%n=12 from settlement history–
Hurricane / Helene Yes33✓40%n=4 from settlement history–
Tariff Yes22✓55%n=241 from settlement history–
Crime / Criminal 15+ timesYes22✗–n=1 too little history for a probability–
Biden Yes11✓55%n=354 from settlement history–
Iran Yes14✓51%n=126 from settlement history–
Landslide Yes00✗64%n=59 from settlement history–
China Yes00✗61%n=180 from settlement history–
Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement Yes00✗59%n=17 from settlement history–
Charlotte / Golf Yes00✗59%n=42 from settlement history–
Russia Yes00✗58%n=80 from settlement history–
Crazy Yes00✗57%n=5 from settlement history–
Egg Yes00✗56%n=36 from settlement history–
China / Chinese Yes00✗52%n=76 from settlement history–
Kamala Yes00✗52%n=48 from settlement history–
Oil / Gas / Gasoline Yes00✗51%n=107 from settlement history–
Fake News Yes00✗49%n=182 from settlement history–
MAGA / Make America Great Again Yes00✗48%n=97 from settlement history–
Hottest Yes00✗47%n=341 from settlement history–
Deport / Deported / Deportation Yes00✗45%n=2 from settlement history–
Healthcare Yes00✗45%n=44 from settlement history–
Save America Act Yes00✗44%n=55 from settlement history–
Make America Healthy Again Yes00✗43%n=2 from settlement history–
Sanctuary Yes00✗43%n=7 from settlement history–
Communist / Communism Yes00✗43%n=110 from settlement history–
Supreme Court Yes00✗42%n=85 from settlement history–
Stock Market Yes00✗42%n=178 from settlement history–
Transgender Yes00✗41%n=234 from settlement history–
Communist / Communism 5+ timesYes00✗–new new word, no probability yet–
FEMA Yes00✗39%n=8 from settlement history–
Fraud Yes00✗37%n=93 from settlement history–
ICE Yes00✗34%n=36 from settlement history–
Dividend / Stimulus Yes00✗32%n=16 from settlement history–
Cheat / Cheater / Cheating Yes00✗29%n=25 from settlement history–
Afford / Affordable / Affordability Yes00✗29%n=97 from settlement history–
Job 20+ timesNo33✓43%n=9 from settlement history–
Warsh No15✗37%n=10 from settlement history–
Trump Account No00✓59%n=13 from settlement history–
TrumpRX No00✓54%n=18 from settlement history–
Israel / Israeli No00✓45%n=98 from settlement history–
EV / Electric Vehicle No00✓45%n=9 from settlement history–
Green New Scam No00✓44%n=28 from settlement history–
Hell 10+ timesNo00✓43%n=7 from settlement history–
Mental Institution No00✓43%n=33 from settlement history–
Filibuster No00✓42%n=15 from settlement history–
Barack Hussein Obama No00✓41%n=174 from settlement history–
Furniture No00✓–new new word, no probability yet–
Manufacture / Manufacturing No00✓39%n=9 from settlement history–
Windmill No00✓36%n=71 from settlement history–
Fentanyl No00✓32%n=45 from settlement history–
Made in America / American Made No00✓32%n=5 from settlement history–
AI / Artificial Intelligence No00✓32%n=248 from settlement history–
Data Center No00✓27%n=14 from settlement history–
Rigged Election No00✓26%n=8 from settlement history–
Zohran / Mamdani No00✓25%n=37 from settlement history–
Drill Baby Drill No00✓23%n=102 from settlement history–
America First No00✓22%n=95 from settlement history–
Six Seven No00✓22%n=68 from settlement history–
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency No00✓10%n=28 from settlement history–
Ceasefire No00✓6%n=111 from settlement history–
Crypto / Bitcoin No00✓5%n=504 from settlement history–

Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.

Transcript

50 passages

Official transcript · The American Presidency Project (UCSB), Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley; text: the White House (public domain) · Source · Public domain (US government work): full text.

Questions and answers

Qreporter

Do you still have confidence——

So we're going to be doing a good job tonight in North Carolina, but Michael Whatley is a great candidate. He's going to bring it back to sanity because Roy Cooper, the former Governor, was a disaster on crime and a disaster on all sorts of hazards.

We had the hurricane, the big hurricane—Helene, I believe it was named. And he was horrible. He was actually horrible.

So I think Michael Whatley has a very good chance of winning. Hopefully, he's going to win. And he's strong on crime, and he loves the State. He was a great head of the Republican Party, and so we're going to be here for him. We had some very good numbers come out today on certain things.

And what question would you like to ask?

Qreporter

Mr. President, the Fed—the Federal Reserve's actions today were the opposite of what you had been asking them to do. Do you still have confidence in the Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh?

Yes, I do. I mean, I'm relying on Kevin, but he's got, you know, a very tough Board. He's got a Board that was put there by a lot of other people. And the interest rates are too high. They're not appropriate. And I told—I talked to Kevin, and I said, "You might as well vote with the Board because it's not going to matter." The Board is very hostile. They're very political. They're doing the wrong thing. They're a bunch of politicians or people put on by politicians, and it's a shame because it's too high an interest rate.

Despite that, the country barrels through everything because we're doing so well. But the interest rates are too high. We should be playing—paying the lowest interest rate anywhere in the world because we have the strongest credit. If we wanted to get rid of deficits, which we could do with a swipe of a pen with every country, we'd make a trillion and a half dollars a year. We'd pay off our debt. We'd do all sorts of things. But we haven't chosen to do that, but at some point, we will. Interest rates are too high.

Qreporter

Yes. On the assassination attempt in Butler—in Butler, Pennsylvania. Can you provide us with more information of the evidence——

No, I can't.

Q. ——

that you learned?

The Butler thing is strange, but—very strange situation. It was handled by the Biden administration and a very bad—very bad head of the FBI at the time, as you know—Christopher Wray, who was a terrible—he's a dirty cop, in my opinion.

But you'll have to check with the law enforcement. I think——

I think the whole Butler thing was very badly handled.

Qreporter

You said you spoke to Kevin Warsh. When did you talk to him? Did you try to convince him not to——

No, I spoke—no, I didn't convince him at all.

Qreporter

You told us you talked to him.

I said, "Do what you want." I said, "Do what you want," because it doesn't matter because he doesn't have the votes. No matter how good a job—he's a good man, Kevin Warsh. But no matter how good a job, he's got a hostile Board.

Qreporter

He said that it was the right decision and it was the responsible decision to—for these interest hikes. What do you say to that? And what did you speak to him?

Well, I don't know what he was referring to, but I will tell you interest rates are too high.

Qreporter

Do you think he made that decision based on what you told him?

No, I don't think so. I think—I want him to be independent. But it's my opinion—I'm very good at this stuff—interest rates are too high. We should have the lowest interest rate anywhere in the world because we're the best credit.

Qreporter

Do you acknowledge, though, that they're raising these rates to bring down prices that are, in large part, though——

No, they're raising the rates to——

Q. ——

because of the war in Iran?

They're raising the rates to make Trump do as bad as they can possibly do. The problem they have is that we have the greatest economy in history. We have over $21 trillion being invested in this country, which is five times more than we've ever had before. So they're raising that only for political reasons, and that's a raise against Trump.

Qreporter

Kevin Warsh—Kevin Warsh did it for political reasons?

What phase are we in in the Iran war right now? How would you describe what phase of the war we are in?

Well, hopefully, we're toward the end of the war. They want to make a deal, and we'll see how that works out. They're very much wanting to make—Iran is very much wanting to make a deal. We'll see how that works out.

Qreporter

Have you heard from them recently, sir? Have you heard from them directly——

Q. ——

or through intermediaries?

We deal directly.

Qreporter

Mr. President, how does cutting trade with certain countries make more money for the United States?

We lose deficits. For instance, if we lose $50 billion a year with a country and we say, "We're not going to trade with you anymore," we don't lose $50 billion a year. It's very simple. Right?

Qreporter

Mr. President, Mr. President——

Any response to Canada becoming—Canada becoming an associate member of the European Union? What's your reaction to that?

No, I think it's laughable. Look, the whole thing with Canada—Canada has been a terrible trade partner. And, no, I don't see that. And if they do that, if I think it's at all a hostile act, I will put very serious tariffs or stop trading with Europe on many things. So, if they do that, if Europe does that with a bad intention—if they're—if it's a good intention, that's fine. If it's a bad intention, we'll put very heavy tariffs on Europe——

Qreporter

Why is it so important for you——

Has the war with Iran had anything to do with raising rates?

——which is a—which is a possibility.

Qreporter

Mr. President, why is it so important for you to have your name on the Kennedy Center, a memorial for JFK?

Well, it's a very easy question to answer, because it's a mess. It's lost—the Kennedy Center, for many years, has lost tens of millions of dollars, even hundreds of millions of dollars. It's a loser, financially.

And many of the places like that, you know, like Carnegie Hall and the various places throughout the country, they lose a lot of money.

For me to go and fix it—I'm the one capable of fixing it—and then have to subsidize it for years to come, because you will lose, with the Kennedy Center—they were losing hundreds of millions of dollars, and sometimes hundreds of millions. This is before I got involved.

So, for the Trump administration, for me, to get involved and to take that on long term and to carry it or to raise money to carry it, I think that the Trump administration should certainly have recognition. Because, frankly, if we don't do that, it's going to close. It will end up being ripped down. It's in very, very bad shape, very dangerous shape.

You see steel falling down. You see plaster falling off ceilings. You see a lot of dangerous—it's been very badly maintained for 25 years.

Qreporter

Are you going to tear it down if your name doesn't go on the building? Are you going to tear it down?

I'd like to be able to save it, but it's going to take a lot of subsidy into the future. And for us, as an administration, to want to do that, I think the administration—the Trump administration should be recognized.

Okay? Thank you. Thank you.

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