Will Donald Trump say “Cuba / Cuban”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cuba / Cuban” at 17 of 34 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 50% (n=34, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes yes yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 99¢ Kalshi (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Cuba / Cuban
- Probability
- 50% · n=34
- Settled
- 17/34 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
5 counted.
…of Iran will tell you that we have the best equipment. No. Cuba. He wants to know what about Cuba. Give me a break. Give…
…we're going to come back from Iran. Those beautiful ships. We'll pass Cuba. We'll have one of them stop about 50 yards off the coast.…
Every settled listing
newest first · 36 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban |  Kalshi | Yes | 5 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (0 of 8 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (3 of 5 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (16 of 18 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (4 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | 2 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (5 of 6 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (7 of 10 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | 1 |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban |  Polymarket | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (8 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (8 of 12 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – (settled no · not found in what we could read (8 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jul 5, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | 4 |
| Jun 28, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | 1 ✗ (our count disagrees with the settlement) |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (9 of 13 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (6 of 9 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | 13 |
| May 27, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 19, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 18, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 11, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 7, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | Void (did not qualify) | – |
| May 5, 2026 | Cuba / Cuban | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Cuba / Cuban”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Cuba / Cuban” at 17 of 34 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since May 5, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 23, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Cuba / Cuban” next time?
- 50%, from settlement history (n=34). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Cuba / Cuban’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cuba-or-cuban (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cuba%20%2F%20cuban · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP